United States | Campaign calculus: mini-landslides

Recent special elections bode well for Democrats

They can help in predicting general elections

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson administers the oath of office to Rep. LaMonica McIver, as she is joined by her husband and daughter at a ceremonial swearing-in, at the Capitol in Washington.
Photograph: AP

If Republicans were about to experience a breakthrough among black voters, as some polls had suggested, New Jersey’s tenth congressional district (which includes Newark) might be a place to start. Around half its residents are black. But in the special election on September 18th to fill the district’s vacant House seat the Democratic candidate, LaMonica McIver, won in a landslide. She defeated her opponent by 81% to 16%—a larger margin than President Joe Biden managed there in 2020.

Explore more

This article appeared in the United States section of the print edition under the headline “The meaning of mini-landslides”

From the September 28th 2024 edition

Discover stories from this section and more in the list of contents

Explore the edition

Discover more

Former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan, speaks to the press after the Maryland Senate debate in Maryland.

Why Larry Hogan’s long-odds bid for a Senate seat matters

He offers conservatives a pragmatic path beyond Trumpism

Democratic suppporters at the campaign trail for Vice President Harris, Pittsburgh, USA.

Polarisation by education is remaking American politics

The battle for Pennsylvania is a test case for new coalitions of Democrats and Republicans



Hurricane Milton inundates Florida

Three factors laid the ground for its destructiveness

Shirley Chisholm is still winning

The first black woman to run for president taught a lesson in making political change

US election forecast: who will control the House of Representatives?

Our prediction model assesses each party’s chance of winning the chamber