Could an “October surprise” upset America’s election?
What last-minute developments might portend for the race
IN OCTOBER OF a presidential-election year, observers of American politics give the expression “expect the unexpected” new meaning. With a month to go, and early voting under way, nerves begin to fray. Poll-watchers and pundits brace for the story that will upend the contest. Excitement about an “October surprise” mounts. And yet the phenomenon is usually a damp squib.
Explore more
Discover more
Why Larry Hogan’s long-odds bid for a Senate seat matters
He offers conservatives a pragmatic path beyond Trumpism
Polarisation by education is remaking American politics
The battle for Pennsylvania is a test case for new coalitions of Democrats and Republicans
Checks and Balance newsletter: Partisan positions have changed drastically over the past 50 years
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump converge as much as they differ
Hurricane Milton inundates Florida
Three factors laid the ground for its destructiveness
Shirley Chisholm is still winning
The first black woman to run for president taught a lesson in making political change
US election forecast: who will control the House of Representatives?
Our prediction model assesses each party’s chance of winning the chamber