Our forecast puts Kamala Harris and Donald Trump neck and neck
We relaunch our presidential-election model for a transformed race
THE MOOD among Democrats, as they prepare to gather for their national convention in Chicago next week, is ebullient. Kamalamentum has transformed the presidential contest. Meanwhile, the Republicans are finding it hard to adjust to the new dynamics: the glitch that delayed the start of Donald Trump’s conversation with Elon Musk, carried live on X on August 12th, was emblematic of a campaign that is no longer going to plan. Yet if there is one lesson from this wild election year, it is that things can change with remarkable speed.
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This article appeared in the Leaders section of the print edition under the headline “A coin toss for the White House”
Leaders August 17th 2024
From the August 17th 2024 edition
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The front line of the tech war is in Asia
The two superpowers are vying for influence. China will not necessarily win
How high could the oil price go?
Geopolitical risk is rising. But so is the supply of oil
The Trumpification of American policy
No matter who wins in November, Donald Trump has redefined both parties’ agendas
How Florida should respond to Hurricane Milton
Storms like it raise uncomfortable questions about the state’s future
Britain should not hand the Chagos Islands to Mauritius
Once again, the Chagossians have been denied a say
A map of a fruit fly’s brain could help us understand our own
A miracle of complexity, powered by rotting fruit