Also on the daily podcast: the power Brazil’s ex-president still wields and the deep, anxious history of self-help books

A flawless SpaceX launch marks the start of a new economics of space

The Intelligence - A flawless SpaceX launch marks the start of a new economics of space | Podcasts | The Economist

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One giant, cheap for mankind: SpaceX’s Starship

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The fifth test flight of the absolutely enormous Starship went entirely to plan, returning everything to Earth for reuse and heralding a new era of big space missions with small price tags. Two years after Brazilians ejected Jair Bolsonaro, their inept and dangerous former president, he still shapes right-wing politics (11:30). And the anxiety-lined past and present of self-help books (19:22). Runtime: 25 min

The fifth test flight of the absolutely enormous Starship went <a href="https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2024/10/13/elon-musks-spacex-has-achieved-something-extraordinary?utm_campaign=a.io&utm_medium=audio.podcast.np&utm_source=theintelligence&utm_content=discovery.content.anonymous.tr_shownotes_na-na_article&utm_term=sa.listeners">entirely to plan</a>, returning everything to Earth for reuse and heralding a new era of big space missions with small price tags. Two years after Brazilians ejected Jair Bolsonaro, their inept and dangerous former president, he <a href="https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2024/10/02/jair-bolsonaro-still-shapes-brazils-political-right?utm_campaign=a.io&utm_medium=audio.podcast.np&utm_source=theintelligence&utm_content=discovery.content.anonymous.tr_shownotes_na-na_article&utm_term=sa.listeners">still shapes</a> right-wing politics (11:30). And the anxiety-lined past and present of <a href="https://www.economist.com/britain/2024/09/23/the-self-help-book-began-in-the-land-of-the-stiff-upper-lip?utm_campaign=a.io&utm_medium=audio.podcast.np&utm_source=theintelligence&utm_content=discovery.content.anonymous.tr_shownotes_na-na_article&utm_term=sa.listeners">self-help books</a> (19:22). Runtime: 25 min

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The Intelligence

Rosie Blau [00:00:10] Hello and welcome to the intelligence from The Economist. I’m Rosie Blau.

Rosie Blau [00:00:10] Hello and welcome to the intelligence from The Economist. I’m Rosie Blau.

Jason Palmer [00:00:14] And I’m Jason Palmer. Every weekday, we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world.

Jason Palmer [00:00:14] And I’m Jason Palmer. Every weekday, we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world.

Rosie Blau [00:00:25] Jair Bolsonaro is banned from holding office in Brazil, but that doesn’t stop him using his influence. And the latest Round of elections shows that the right is very definitely on the rise.

Rosie Blau [00:00:25] Jair Bolsonaro is banned from holding office in Brazil, but that doesn’t stop him using his influence. And the latest Round of elections shows that the right is very definitely on the rise.

Jason Palmer [00:00:38] And the genre of what’s now called self-help books has a long backstory. We take a historical ride through them and find that, well, it’s not so much about improving oneself as it is about easing one’s anxieties. But first.

Jason Palmer [00:00:38] And the genre of what’s now called self-help books has a long backstory. We take a historical ride through them and find that, well, it’s not so much about improving oneself as it is about easing one’s anxieties. But first.

Speaker 4 [00:01:09] Flight directors go for lunch. Hi. Hey, T minus five, four, three, two, one. Yeah.

Speaker 4 [00:01:09] Flight directors go for lunch. Hi. Hey, T minus five, four, three, two, one. Yeah.

Oliver Morton [00:01:24] There’s something about watching the Starship Super heavy craft developed by Space X launch that’s almost like the atomic ideal of a rocket launch.

Oliver Morton [00:01:24] There’s something about watching the Starship Super heavy craft developed by Space X launch that’s almost like the atomic ideal of a rocket launch.

Speaker 4 [00:01:34] Vehicle pitching downrange.

Speaker 4 [00:01:34] Vehicle pitching downrange.

Jason Palmer [00:01:36] Oliver Morton is our planetary affairs editor.

Jason Palmer [00:01:36] Oliver Morton is our planetary affairs editor.

Oliver Morton [00:01:39] The rocket itself has no taper to it, so it’s just this slightly sharp headed cylinder of shiny steel, 120m high. And when it goes up, the flames that come out of it, the propellers upwards are remarkably straight and collimated like a column of light. Very little smoke. And the powers. Just extraordinary. I mean, this is about twice as powerful as the Saturn five moon rockets. So seeing this thing go from being effectively a pretty large building into Lance, travelling up through the sky, it’s quite extraordinary.

Oliver Morton [00:01:39] The rocket itself has no taper to it, so it’s just this slightly sharp headed cylinder of shiny steel, 120m high. And when it goes up, the flames that come out of it, the propellers upwards are remarkably straight and collimated like a column of light. Very little smoke. And the powers. Just extraordinary. I mean, this is about twice as powerful as the Saturn five moon rockets. So seeing this thing go from being effectively a pretty large building into Lance, travelling up through the sky, it’s quite extraordinary.

Jason Palmer [00:02:25] So take us through exactly what it was that we saw yesterday.

Jason Palmer [00:02:25] So take us through exactly what it was that we saw yesterday.

Oliver Morton [00:02:28] So after a few minutes, the bottom some under the super heavy booster throttles back. So it’s the only using I think at the end three of its engines.

Oliver Morton [00:02:28] So after a few minutes, the bottom some under the super heavy booster throttles back. So it’s the only using I think at the end three of its engines.

Speaker 4 [00:02:39] Next major milestone coming up it’s going to be hot stage and we’re going to see the engines ignite on ship to push it away from the booster.

Speaker 4 [00:02:39] Next major milestone coming up it’s going to be hot stage and we’re going to see the engines ignite on ship to push it away from the booster.

Oliver Morton [00:02:49] The top bit, the starship proper throttles forward and lights up at six engines and the two go their separate ways.

Oliver Morton [00:02:49] The top bit, the starship proper throttles forward and lights up at six engines and the two go their separate ways.

Speaker 4 [00:02:56] Stage separation of the booster separation stage.

Speaker 4 [00:02:56] Stage separation of the booster separation stage.

Oliver Morton [00:03:03] With the starship continuing on into what is more or less, but not in fact, an orbit around the power.

Oliver Morton [00:03:03] With the starship continuing on into what is more or less, but not in fact, an orbit around the power.

Speaker 4 [00:03:11] I’m seeing six out of six raptors lit.

Speaker 4 [00:03:11] I’m seeing six out of six raptors lit.

Oliver Morton [00:03:13] Getting faster and faster as its six engines burn. 4 in 10 minutes or so on from there is now making.

Oliver Morton [00:03:13] Getting faster and faster as its six engines burn. 4 in 10 minutes or so on from there is now making.

Rosie Blau [00:03:20] Its way back to.

Oliver Morton [00:03:23] While the super heavy booster, which is basically a very large elongated tin, can relight some of its engines in order to move itself back towards the starbase, as they call it, in Texas from which it was launched and then basically falls down 75km, more or less straight down.

Oliver Morton [00:03:23] While the super heavy booster, which is basically a very large elongated tin, can relight some of its engines in order to move itself back towards the starbase, as they call it, in Texas from which it was launched and then basically falls down 75km, more or less straight down.

Unidentified [00:03:47] For the blue flames from the booster. As you can see. First stage now making its way.

Unidentified [00:03:47] For the blue flames from the booster. As you can see. First stage now making its way.

Rosie Blau [00:03:57] Back to the launch.

Rosie Blau [00:03:57] Back to the launch.

Catherine Nixey [00:03:59] Site again.

Speaker 4 [00:03:59] We are ship avionics.

Speaker 4 [00:03:59] We are ship avionics.

Oliver Morton [00:04:00] Powered, so holding out its little fins and fluttering them in the wind until it’s almost at the surface of the earth. We’re now down.

Oliver Morton [00:04:00] Powered, so holding out its little fins and fluttering them in the wind until it’s almost at the surface of the earth. We’re now down.

Unidentified [00:04:08] To three raptor engines.

Unidentified [00:04:08] To three raptor engines.

Oliver Morton [00:04:19] Then happily in this case, 13 of its engines start up again. And in just a few seconds it goes for more or less the speed of sound. Make a delay to more or less the speed of a very fast car instead. And then its last three engines which guide it in the. So it starts sliding back. What? Go next to the launch tower. At which point the huge arms which the space people call Mechagodzilla, because they’re the space X people and they would close all around it and there it is.

Oliver Morton [00:04:19] Then happily in this case, 13 of its engines start up again. And in just a few seconds it goes for more or less the speed of sound. Make a delay to more or less the speed of a very fast car instead. And then its last three engines which guide it in the. So it starts sliding back. What? Go next to the launch tower. At which point the huge arms which the space people call Mechagodzilla, because they’re the space X people and they would close all around it and there it is.

Unidentified [00:04:59] First, the steps we have successfully charged to super happy booster back at the.

Unidentified [00:04:59] First, the steps we have successfully charged to super happy booster back at the.

Oliver Morton [00:05:06] It’s come back to where it took off from just seven minutes ago and it’s hanging there with a little bit of flame still spluttering around at the bottom end. People around the world are exclaiming with various levels of profanity, various levels of sincerity and various levels of, I believe, actually tears. Wow.

Oliver Morton [00:05:06] It’s come back to where it took off from just seven minutes ago and it’s hanging there with a little bit of flame still spluttering around at the bottom end. People around the world are exclaiming with various levels of profanity, various levels of sincerity and various levels of, I believe, actually tears. Wow.

Jason Palmer [00:05:31] And everything you ran through there was about the return of the booster, which, to be fair, was the really striking bear. But what about the starship itself.

Jason Palmer [00:05:31] And everything you ran through there was about the return of the booster, which, to be fair, was the really striking bear. But what about the starship itself.

Oliver Morton [00:05:39] The starship itself possibly feeling slightly miffed about being sort of like now a supporting player at its own event, flies on about halfway around the earth and then does something which the booster doesn’t have to do, then re-enters the Earth’s atmosphere with great speed. I mean, its maximum speed is about 26,000km an hour. It goes barely first into the atmosphere and develops a heated plasma of air in front of it, and which it’s protected from pretty well by its thermal protection system. Then just before it hits the Indian Ocean, it flips itself so that it too is now coming down vertically, turns on three of its engines, and lowers itself fairly gently onto the surface of the ocean where it floats for a bit.

Oliver Morton [00:05:39] The starship itself possibly feeling slightly miffed about being sort of like now a supporting player at its own event, flies on about halfway around the earth and then does something which the booster doesn’t have to do, then re-enters the Earth’s atmosphere with great speed. I mean, its maximum speed is about 26,000km an hour. It goes barely first into the atmosphere and develops a heated plasma of air in front of it, and which it’s protected from pretty well by its thermal protection system. Then just before it hits the Indian Ocean, it flips itself so that it too is now coming down vertically, turns on three of its engines, and lowers itself fairly gently onto the surface of the ocean where it floats for a bit.

Unidentified [00:06:27] And then runs. Starships journey. A live view from a view that we had out at the landing site.

Unidentified [00:06:27] And then runs. Starships journey. A live view from a view that we had out at the landing site.

Oliver Morton [00:06:36] Now, in some future test flight, though, we don’t know which the idea will be that the starship goes fully into orbit and then at some point decides to come down and it, too, is caught at a launch tower.

Oliver Morton [00:06:36] Now, in some future test flight, though, we don’t know which the idea will be that the starship goes fully into orbit and then at some point decides to come down and it, too, is caught at a launch tower.

Jason Palmer [00:06:51] And all of this is in aid of making the whole business reusable and therefore making the whole space business cheaper. Right.

Jason Palmer [00:06:51] And all of this is in aid of making the whole business reusable and therefore making the whole space business cheaper. Right.

Oliver Morton [00:06:58] It’s a matter of two things. Yes, reusable means cheaper. The other thing is that this allows you to put really quite big things into low-Earth orbit or to put a lot of things into low-Earth orbit. At a time when this first iteration of starship is operational, it will take something like 150 tons into low-Earth orbit. That’s an extraordinarily large amount by contemporary standards. Space X is already talking about further models, which would effectively be the same thing, but with more powerful engines and just bigger spacecraft that would get up to 200 or 250 tons per launch into orbit. That means you can launch very big things like prefabricated space stations, for example.

Oliver Morton [00:06:58] It’s a matter of two things. Yes, reusable means cheaper. The other thing is that this allows you to put really quite big things into low-Earth orbit or to put a lot of things into low-Earth orbit. At a time when this first iteration of starship is operational, it will take something like 150 tons into low-Earth orbit. That’s an extraordinarily large amount by contemporary standards. Space X is already talking about further models, which would effectively be the same thing, but with more powerful engines and just bigger spacecraft that would get up to 200 or 250 tons per launch into orbit. That means you can launch very big things like prefabricated space stations, for example.

Jason Palmer [00:07:39] So so this is mostly then about more payloads into low-Earth orbit.

Jason Palmer [00:07:39] So so this is mostly then about more payloads into low-Earth orbit.

Oliver Morton [00:07:44] Well, it’s also about moving people beyond low earth orbit because starship, once it’s in the low earth orbit, it’s not quite a starship, as Captain Cook would understand it. But it is in principle, a way of going beyond low Earth orbit. You have to fuel it up first because by the time it gets into orbit, it’s not fully fuelled. But SpaceX has plans to put up a sort of like fuel depot where propellant will be taken up by tanker versions of starship, from which versions of starship which wish to go further can fill up in low earth orbit and then move on. A starship variant like that is the vehicle which Nasser very much plans to use for its first human moon landings for the last 60 years. Elon Musk, the founder and CEO of Space X, wants to use them to push onwards towards Mars. For him, the moon is also like paying gig from NASA, and that’s nice. But Mars is where his attention is really focussed when it’s not focussed on helping to elect Donald Trump or spreading misinformation on act formally Twitter.

Oliver Morton [00:07:44] Well, it’s also about moving people beyond low earth orbit because starship, once it’s in the low earth orbit, it’s not quite a starship, as Captain Cook would understand it. But it is in principle, a way of going beyond low Earth orbit. You have to fuel it up first because by the time it gets into orbit, it’s not fully fuelled. But SpaceX has plans to put up a sort of like fuel depot where propellant will be taken up by tanker versions of starship, from which versions of starship which wish to go further can fill up in low earth orbit and then move on. A starship variant like that is the vehicle which Nasser very much plans to use for its first human moon landings for the last 60 years. Elon Musk, the founder and CEO of Space X, wants to use them to push onwards towards Mars. For him, the moon is also like paying gig from NASA, and that’s nice. But Mars is where his attention is really focussed when it’s not focussed on helping to elect Donald Trump or spreading misinformation on act formally Twitter.

Jason Palmer [00:08:56] So, okay, lofty ambitions. But what kind of timelines are we talking about and what needs to be done between now and then?

Jason Palmer [00:08:56] So, okay, lofty ambitions. But what kind of timelines are we talking about and what needs to be done between now and then?

Oliver Morton [00:09:01] NASA’s still claims that it might put people on to the moon in 2026. I think most people that I’ve talked to on this subject think that that’s definitely not going to happen. Mr. Musk talks about sending Uncrewed starships to Mars as soon as 2026, which is the next planetary alignment that allows a low energy transfer of orbit to Mars. And I wouldn’t necessarily entirely bet against that, but my sense would be possibly more likely the opportunity after that. They come about every two years. And certainly Mr. Musk thinks he will be sending people to Mars by the 2030. He may say the 2020s, but by the 2030.

Oliver Morton [00:09:01] NASA’s still claims that it might put people on to the moon in 2026. I think most people that I’ve talked to on this subject think that that’s definitely not going to happen. Mr. Musk talks about sending Uncrewed starships to Mars as soon as 2026, which is the next planetary alignment that allows a low energy transfer of orbit to Mars. And I wouldn’t necessarily entirely bet against that, but my sense would be possibly more likely the opportunity after that. They come about every two years. And certainly Mr. Musk thinks he will be sending people to Mars by the 2030. He may say the 2020s, but by the 2030.

Jason Palmer [00:09:45] But your assessment on the basis of what we saw yesterday, what we’ve seen before yesterday, this basically is the kind of company that can, in fact, pull this off.

Jason Palmer [00:09:45] But your assessment on the basis of what we saw yesterday, what we’ve seen before yesterday, this basically is the kind of company that can, in fact, pull this off.

Oliver Morton [00:09:53] It’s worth remembering that Space X does not just build excellent rockets in the Falcon nine and now is in the process of building this. Big ass starship thing. It also built already spacecraft that can take cruise. It’s a profoundly capable engineering set up, more capable, I think, than any of Mr. Musk’s other various interests. And I think that’s because the people at Space X may not believe in Mr. Musk, but they believe in a lot of what Mr. Musk wants to do when it comes to building amazing spacecraft and sending them places. And that level of alignment between an elite technical staff and a somewhat disturbing owner, but one who provides very clear lead as to what the company is meant to be doing. That’s quite a powerful thing.

Oliver Morton [00:09:53] It’s worth remembering that Space X does not just build excellent rockets in the Falcon nine and now is in the process of building this. Big ass starship thing. It also built already spacecraft that can take cruise. It’s a profoundly capable engineering set up, more capable, I think, than any of Mr. Musk’s other various interests. And I think that’s because the people at Space X may not believe in Mr. Musk, but they believe in a lot of what Mr. Musk wants to do when it comes to building amazing spacecraft and sending them places. And that level of alignment between an elite technical staff and a somewhat disturbing owner, but one who provides very clear lead as to what the company is meant to be doing. That’s quite a powerful thing.

Jason Palmer [00:10:46] Oliver, thanks very much for your time.

Jason Palmer [00:10:46] Oliver, thanks very much for your time.

Oliver Morton [00:10:47] Pleasure as always, Jason.

Oliver Morton [00:10:47] Pleasure as always, Jason.

Jason Palmer [00:10:51] The starship launch is just the latest sprint in a far wider space race. And just like the last one, that brings in plenty of super power competition. Luckily for you, Oliver has spoken to my colleagues all about exactly that. On this week’s episode of Babbage, our weekly subscriber Only Science and Tech Show. Launch yourself over there on Wednesday. What’s that you say you’re not signed up? Inconceivable. Listen, cut through the noise and subscribe to economist podcasts. Plus, now you can get a free trial going.

Jason Palmer [00:10:51] The starship launch is just the latest sprint in a far wider space race. And just like the last one, that brings in plenty of super power competition. Luckily for you, Oliver has spoken to my colleagues all about exactly that. On this week’s episode of Babbage, our weekly subscriber Only Science and Tech Show. Launch yourself over there on Wednesday. What’s that you say you’re not signed up? Inconceivable. Listen, cut through the noise and subscribe to economist podcasts. Plus, now you can get a free trial going.

Rosie Blau [00:11:37] Brazil’s disgraced former president, Jair Bolsonaro, is back in the spotlight, though he’s banned from the highest office. He’s using his popularity to help the far right make a comeback.

Rosie Blau [00:11:37] Brazil’s disgraced former president, Jair Bolsonaro, is back in the spotlight, though he’s banned from the highest office. He’s using his popularity to help the far right make a comeback.

Speaker 6 [00:11:49] Well, for 30 years, de Villepin, I guess I could feel the bitterness up there. Yeah. Data.

Speaker 6 [00:11:49] Well, for 30 years, de Villepin, I guess I could feel the bitterness up there. Yeah. Data.

Rosie Blau [00:11:57] During Brazil’s recent municipal elections, he hit the campaign trail to drum up support for populist candidates. He also used the occasion to decry the various investigations that he and his supporters face as.

Rosie Blau [00:11:57] During Brazil’s recent municipal elections, he hit the campaign trail to drum up support for populist candidates. He also used the occasion to decry the various investigations that he and his supporters face as.

Unidentified [00:12:12] There was a new one. There was? Yeah.

Unidentified [00:12:12] There was a new one. There was? Yeah.

Ana Lankes Bolsonaro is no longer a candidate. He’s still shaping Brazilian politics. Some analysts consider Brazil’s municipal elections a little bit like American midterms and that they’re often used as a bellwether for voter sentiment.

Ana Lankes Bolsonaro is no longer a candidate. He’s still shaping Brazilian politics. Some analysts consider Brazil’s municipal elections a little bit like American midterms and that they’re often used as a bellwether for voter sentiment.

Rosie Blau: Anna Lanka’s is our Brazil correspondent.

Rosie Blau: Anna Lanka’s is our Brazil correspondent.

Ana Lankes: And this year’s poll can tell us a little bit about what we might expect at Brazil’s next presidential contest in 2026. And the main takeaway is that a conservative candidate is probably poised to do very well. Okay. So, Ana, talk me through the results. Who won? Centre right parties were the big winners of the night. And there’s two reasons for that. The economy is doing well and much more importantly, pork barrel politics. So over the past few years, lawmakers have been able to wrangle bigger and bigger earmarks for their municipalities from the federal budget. They’ve been spending big before the election, which gave incumbents the advantage. So mayors had a re-election rate of around 81% nationally, which is much higher than the historical average of 58%. Most of these incumbents were from centrist or centre right parties. But another winner of the night was President Jair Bolsonaro and his supporters. Okay, so explain that to me. How can someone who’s not standing win? So it’s helpful here just to have a quick recap of history. Bolsonaro lost the last election in October 2022. So the current president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who’s from the left. And last year, Bolsonaro was barred from holding public office for eight years because he spread lies in the run up to the election about voting machines being rigged. Since then, he’s had a series of criminal investigations open into him, including accusations that he faked his Covid vaccine and that he stoked riots on January 8th, in which his supporters who believe that he’d won the presidential election, attacked the Supreme Court, the presidential palace and Congress. So many people hoped that he’d kind of disappear after losing because it looks increasingly likely that he’ll end up in jail. But rather than fade out, he’s actually been pretty important on the campaign trail in the municipal elections. He’s endorsed some candidates and ignored others. And what does that meant in practice? Where have we particularly seen Bolsonaro’s influence? I think one place we really see this is in Sao Paulo. There you have two right wing candidates that were important. One of them is the incumbent. He’s an establishment centre right figure called Ricardo Nunez, who’s very uncharismatic. And the other is called Pablo Marcel, who out of nowhere became really important in this election. And he’s a far right digital influencer. Both were vying for the support of Bolsonaro. He does newness in order to get Bolsonaro’s endorsement picked as his running mate. A former colonel who publishes photos of his own kids carrying semi-automatic rifles and more. So in order to get Bolsonaro voters to support him out. Bolsonaro and Bolsonaro, he’s been doing loads of crazy things on the campaign trail and spreading lots of false information about other candidates, including accusing them of taking cocaine and being rapists. He showed up to the vote five minutes before polls closed barefoot to cheering supporters. Before that, he’d goaded another rival into hitting him with a chair during a live mayoral debate broadcast in September.

Ana Lankes: And this year’s poll can tell us a little bit about what we might expect at Brazil’s next presidential contest in 2026. And the main takeaway is that a conservative candidate is probably poised to do very well. Okay. So, Ana, talk me through the results. Who won? Centre right parties were the big winners of the night. And there’s two reasons for that. The economy is doing well and much more importantly, pork barrel politics. So over the past few years, lawmakers have been able to wrangle bigger and bigger earmarks for their municipalities from the federal budget. They’ve been spending big before the election, which gave incumbents the advantage. So mayors had a re-election rate of around 81% nationally, which is much higher than the historical average of 58%. Most of these incumbents were from centrist or centre right parties. But another winner of the night was President Jair Bolsonaro and his supporters. Okay, so explain that to me. How can someone who’s not standing win? So it’s helpful here just to have a quick recap of history. Bolsonaro lost the last election in October 2022. So the current president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who’s from the left. And last year, Bolsonaro was barred from holding public office for eight years because he spread lies in the run up to the election about voting machines being rigged. Since then, he’s had a series of criminal investigations open into him, including accusations that he faked his Covid vaccine and that he stoked riots on January 8th, in which his supporters who believe that he’d won the presidential election, attacked the Supreme Court, the presidential palace and Congress. So many people hoped that he’d kind of disappear after losing because it looks increasingly likely that he’ll end up in jail. But rather than fade out, he’s actually been pretty important on the campaign trail in the municipal elections. He’s endorsed some candidates and ignored others. And what does that meant in practice? Where have we particularly seen Bolsonaro’s influence? I think one place we really see this is in Sao Paulo. There you have two right wing candidates that were important. One of them is the incumbent. He’s an establishment centre right figure called Ricardo Nunez, who’s very uncharismatic. And the other is called Pablo Marcel, who out of nowhere became really important in this election. And he’s a far right digital influencer. Both were vying for the support of Bolsonaro. He does newness in order to get Bolsonaro’s endorsement picked as his running mate. A former colonel who publishes photos of his own kids carrying semi-automatic rifles and more. So in order to get Bolsonaro voters to support him out. Bolsonaro and Bolsonaro, he’s been doing loads of crazy things on the campaign trail and spreading lots of false information about other candidates, including accusing them of taking cocaine and being rapists. He showed up to the vote five minutes before polls closed barefoot to cheering supporters. Before that, he’d goaded another rival into hitting him with a chair during a live mayoral debate broadcast in September.

00:15:52] He didn’t advance to the runoff, but he did way better than expected. He got 28% of the vote. And what this shows is that to be successful as a conservative in Brazil today, in many ways you either have to be more bolsonaro’s other than Bolsonaro himself or you have to do everything it takes to get his voters to get his endorsement. So you’ve described a circus in Sao Paulo. What’s happening elsewhere? How’s Bolsonaro tipping the scales in other races? So in 23 of Brazil’s 100 or so largest cities, candidates with backing from Bolsonaro were polling in first place prior to Election Day, and they did better in the municipal elections than Lula’s candidates did. That means that leading right wing candidates who are thinking about running in the 2026 elections, they’re sensing the mood and they’re changing tack to voters often care about very local things. In the municipal elections, they choose candidates for slightly different reasons in the presidential race. However, we have some indications of who might run in the 2026 presidential race and of the conservatives who might run. They’re increasingly tacking to the right. So one of them is called the Cesar G Freight. He’s the governor of Sao Paulo State, and he was long considered a moderate. He was Bolsonaro’s infrastructure minister. But he also has worked in previous left wing governments and he’s very cosy with bankers on fire, Lima, which is Brazil’s Wall Street. But in order to get more support from Bolsonaro, East has in recent months he’s been toughening up his image and he’s been authorising increasingly violent military operations in Sao Paulo’s poorest neighbourhoods. So, Ana, what you’re describing is a picture of much greater polarisation in Brazil. What’s actually going on on the left? I think the left is stagnating. So Lula’s Workers Party did worse than both centre right parties and bolsonaro’s Liberal Party. And even candidates that had Lula’s backing didn’t really want to associate themselves with him strongly. So in Rio, the incumbent won. He’s an ally of Lula, but he’s not in Lula’s party, and he distanced himself from Lula. He also found conservative allies to court conservative voters nationally. Lula himself remains relatively popular, and he’s hinted that he’ll run for the presidency again in 2026. But he’s going to have a Biden problem because by then he’ll be nearly 81 years old and he hasn’t nominated an heir apparent. And that’s a problem because many of the leading lights in the Workers Party are very old and the base of the Workers Party is shrinking. It used to consist of Roman Catholics, manufacturing workers and the intellectual urban bourgeoisie. But demographic groups associated with the right wing are taking over the Workers Party’s base. So evangelical Christians are growing and Roman Catholics are shrinking. The agribusiness sector has exploded and industry is in decline. And voters are now much more worried about corruption and crime. What that suggests is that conservative politicians have not just won this election, but are poised to do well both in the presidential election and in elections for decades to come. Anna, thank you so much for talking to me. Thanks for having me, Rosie.

00:15:52] He didn’t advance to the runoff, but he did way better than expected. He got 28% of the vote. And what this shows is that to be successful as a conservative in Brazil today, in many ways you either have to be more bolsonaro’s other than Bolsonaro himself or you have to do everything it takes to get his voters to get his endorsement. So you’ve described a circus in Sao Paulo. What’s happening elsewhere? How’s Bolsonaro tipping the scales in other races? So in 23 of Brazil’s 100 or so largest cities, candidates with backing from Bolsonaro were polling in first place prior to Election Day, and they did better in the municipal elections than Lula’s candidates did. That means that leading right wing candidates who are thinking about running in the 2026 elections, they’re sensing the mood and they’re changing tack to voters often care about very local things. In the municipal elections, they choose candidates for slightly different reasons in the presidential race. However, we have some indications of who might run in the 2026 presidential race and of the conservatives who might run. They’re increasingly tacking to the right. So one of them is called the Cesar G Freight. He’s the governor of Sao Paulo State, and he was long considered a moderate. He was Bolsonaro’s infrastructure minister. But he also has worked in previous left wing governments and he’s very cosy with bankers on fire, Lima, which is Brazil’s Wall Street. But in order to get more support from Bolsonaro, East has in recent months he’s been toughening up his image and he’s been authorising increasingly violent military operations in Sao Paulo’s poorest neighbourhoods. So, Ana, what you’re describing is a picture of much greater polarisation in Brazil. What’s actually going on on the left? I think the left is stagnating. So Lula’s Workers Party did worse than both centre right parties and bolsonaro’s Liberal Party. And even candidates that had Lula’s backing didn’t really want to associate themselves with him strongly. So in Rio, the incumbent won. He’s an ally of Lula, but he’s not in Lula’s party, and he distanced himself from Lula. He also found conservative allies to court conservative voters nationally. Lula himself remains relatively popular, and he’s hinted that he’ll run for the presidency again in 2026. But he’s going to have a Biden problem because by then he’ll be nearly 81 years old and he hasn’t nominated an heir apparent. And that’s a problem because many of the leading lights in the Workers Party are very old and the base of the Workers Party is shrinking. It used to consist of Roman Catholics, manufacturing workers and the intellectual urban bourgeoisie. But demographic groups associated with the right wing are taking over the Workers Party’s base. So evangelical Christians are growing and Roman Catholics are shrinking. The agribusiness sector has exploded and industry is in decline. And voters are now much more worried about corruption and crime. What that suggests is that conservative politicians have not just won this election, but are poised to do well both in the presidential election and in elections for decades to come. Anna, thank you so much for talking to me. Thanks for having me, Rosie.

Catherine Nixey [00:19:25] The year 1859 was a big one for British publishing.

Catherine Nixey [00:19:25] The year 1859 was a big one for British publishing.

Jason Palmer [00:19:30] Catherine Nixey is a Britain correspondent for The Economist.

Jason Palmer [00:19:30] Catherine Nixey is a Britain correspondent for The Economist.

Catherine Nixey [00:19:33] Charles Darwin’s On the Origin of Species was published, as was John Stuart Mills on Liberty, and so too is a now largely forgotten book by an author named Samuel Smiles. This book was boring, badly written and critically panned. One writer later called Books of this Sort the silliest ever known. Naturally, readers loved it. It outsold Darwin popularised new term and in the process changed publishing forever. It was called self-help, and its aim was simple to teach readers that with will, one can do anything. Last year in Britain, 3% of all books sold were self-help ones. That may exist isn’t a surprise. For as long as there have been shelves, they have needed help and books have offered it. Marcus Aurelius meditations still pops up 2000 years after it was written on self-help tables in bookshops, and you can see why advice such as the soul becomes dyed with the colour of its thoughts could sit happily in any modern manual either 17th century specific books had started to appear offering advice on such important topics as beards of a frightful length and blowing the nose in public. Some of self-help. Typical motifs were visible well before the term itself took root. James Clare’s Atomic Habits, a multi-million selling self-help book that’s popular today, explains how the four laws of behaviour change can help with daily habits to stay motivated in life and work and to avoid negative thoughts. Similarly, an 18th century Puritan manual encouraged readers in the habit of dwelling daily on their imminent deaths. Imagine this, manual wrote I breath feeling like three, rattling my hands with a cold sweat upon them, a thought which doubtless helped with staying motivated, if not that much, with negative thoughts. It wasn’t until the Industrial Revolution that self-help proper started to flourish. The world was becoming more individualistic, and that meant that you wanted to improve your individual self and also that you had to find time to do so. The first self-help book, Samuel smiles. This book is typical. This book offers the part liberating, crushing message that with toil, anyone can do what any other man has done. To prove this then goes on to offer 400 odd pages of the kind of dislike oddly disciplined people who sleep for four hours a night, work for 16 hours a day. Opt for improving toil over the perverted life and thus succeed enviably. So the reader learns how Galileo, after 50 years of work, invented his pendulum. How James Watt came up with his steam engine after a mere ten. And how Robert Peel, after falling in love with his landlord’s seven year old daughter, said that he would marry her. Waited for a decade to do so and then did. Grooming a minor apparently did not count in those days as the perverted life. As the genre has grown. So to have its claims. And one of the reasons that self-help is used near that today is that there is a lot of bad stuff out there, ranging from ill thought through ideas to rank charlatan ism. Some titles such as Stay Alive All Your Life, offer advice on things that are rarely considered a problem. Others, such as Think can Grow Rich and I had appendicitis and cured it myself. Invite more than a little suspicion. Whether or not all of self-help claims are true. These books do reveal a truth, namely what people of different eras are worrying about. The genre is anxiety, alphabetised and quantified. If you look under a list of American self-help volumes, then you will see under the letter Age 77 titles on adolescence, 17 on ageing and 13 on alcoholism. L, meanwhile, offers you books on loneliness. Six of them love 63 of them, and unexpectedly and hopefully unrelated, Li Livestock. At times the list reads like a comedy. At other times, it feels more like a tragedy. Under the letter A, after the ability to love and adventures in nakedness becomes much glamour, advice to the lonely, frustrated and confused. Each of them says something about the society in which they were written after the Great Depression. In America, books on moneymaking flourished, and whether they help their readers to flourish is less clear. But then, if you believe Marcus Aurelius, this hardly matters. Wealth, ambition and achievement are he wrote all worthless. We are here for the briefest moment before entering the abyss of eternity. Given that there may be better ways to spend that limit than reading self-help books.

Catherine Nixey [00:19:33] Charles Darwin’s On the Origin of Species was published, as was John Stuart Mills on Liberty, and so too is a now largely forgotten book by an author named Samuel Smiles. This book was boring, badly written and critically panned. One writer later called Books of this Sort the silliest ever known. Naturally, readers loved it. It outsold Darwin popularised new term and in the process changed publishing forever. It was called self-help, and its aim was simple to teach readers that with will, one can do anything. Last year in Britain, 3% of all books sold were self-help ones. That may exist isn’t a surprise. For as long as there have been shelves, they have needed help and books have offered it. Marcus Aurelius meditations still pops up 2000 years after it was written on self-help tables in bookshops, and you can see why advice such as the soul becomes dyed with the colour of its thoughts could sit happily in any modern manual either 17th century specific books had started to appear offering advice on such important topics as beards of a frightful length and blowing the nose in public. Some of self-help. Typical motifs were visible well before the term itself took root. James Clare’s Atomic Habits, a multi-million selling self-help book that’s popular today, explains how the four laws of behaviour change can help with daily habits to stay motivated in life and work and to avoid negative thoughts. Similarly, an 18th century Puritan manual encouraged readers in the habit of dwelling daily on their imminent deaths. Imagine this, manual wrote I breath feeling like three, rattling my hands with a cold sweat upon them, a thought which doubtless helped with staying motivated, if not that much, with negative thoughts. It wasn’t until the Industrial Revolution that self-help proper started to flourish. The world was becoming more individualistic, and that meant that you wanted to improve your individual self and also that you had to find time to do so. The first self-help book, Samuel smiles. This book is typical. This book offers the part liberating, crushing message that with toil, anyone can do what any other man has done. To prove this then goes on to offer 400 odd pages of the kind of dislike oddly disciplined people who sleep for four hours a night, work for 16 hours a day. Opt for improving toil over the perverted life and thus succeed enviably. So the reader learns how Galileo, after 50 years of work, invented his pendulum. How James Watt came up with his steam engine after a mere ten. And how Robert Peel, after falling in love with his landlord’s seven year old daughter, said that he would marry her. Waited for a decade to do so and then did. Grooming a minor apparently did not count in those days as the perverted life. As the genre has grown. So to have its claims. And one of the reasons that self-help is used near that today is that there is a lot of bad stuff out there, ranging from ill thought through ideas to rank charlatan ism. Some titles such as Stay Alive All Your Life, offer advice on things that are rarely considered a problem. Others, such as Think can Grow Rich and I had appendicitis and cured it myself. Invite more than a little suspicion. Whether or not all of self-help claims are true. These books do reveal a truth, namely what people of different eras are worrying about. The genre is anxiety, alphabetised and quantified. If you look under a list of American self-help volumes, then you will see under the letter Age 77 titles on adolescence, 17 on ageing and 13 on alcoholism. L, meanwhile, offers you books on loneliness. Six of them love 63 of them, and unexpectedly and hopefully unrelated, Li Livestock. At times the list reads like a comedy. At other times, it feels more like a tragedy. Under the letter A, after the ability to love and adventures in nakedness becomes much glamour, advice to the lonely, frustrated and confused. Each of them says something about the society in which they were written after the Great Depression. In America, books on moneymaking flourished, and whether they help their readers to flourish is less clear. But then, if you believe Marcus Aurelius, this hardly matters. Wealth, ambition and achievement are he wrote all worthless. We are here for the briefest moment before entering the abyss of eternity. Given that there may be better ways to spend that limit than reading self-help books.

Jason Palmer [00:24:46] That’s all for this episode of the intelligence. We’ll see you back here tomorrow.

Jason Palmer [00:24:46] That’s all for this episode of the intelligence. We’ll see you back here tomorrow.

This podcast transcript is generated by third-party AI. It has not been reviewed prior to publication. We make no representations or warranties in relation to the transcript, its accuracy or its completeness, and we disclaim all liability regarding its receipt, content and use. If you have any concerns about the transcript, please email us at podcasts@economist.com.

<a href="https://myaccount.economist.com/s/article/How-we-handle-AI-generated-content" target="_blank">Read more about how we are using AI</a>.

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